For the first time since the 2027 presidential race started, Nigeria’s opposition seems to be gaining real momentum. This follows the defection of former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Kwankwaso’s arrival on what supporters are calling the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has energized the opposition, raising hopes of a strong fight against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Unlike in 2015, when the opposition was split, this coalition is seen as a serious challenge to the ruling party’s advantage.
The APC, however, remains confident. Party officials and President Bola Tinubu’s team argue that the country’s insecurity and economic problems cannot be blamed solely on him, saying these issues existed before his administration.
“Economic-wise, Nigerians are better off, and the current rot did not start today,” the APC said. “With the defection of governors, senators, and other high-profile opposition figures into our fold, we are well-positioned to win decisively.”
The ADC, meanwhile, is gathering momentum. Kwankwaso’s defection was celebrated in a high-profile event in Kano attended by ADC leaders, including Peter Obi and former minister Rotimi Amaechi.
Thousands attended the rally, which dominated social media. Its excitement was only overshadowed by reports of the Jos massacre.
Supporters called the event a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy. Many social media users compared images of the Kano rally with news from Jos, expressing hope that the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket could reduce nationwide violence.
The focus is also on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Though he did not attend the Kano event, he welcomed Kwankwaso, saying, “When men of conviction come together, power trembles. Welcome aboard, Kwankwaso.”
Questions remain over whether Atiku will secure the ADC presidential ticket. Some believe it should be the South’s turn to produce a candidate, a view Atiku opposed in 2023 when he ran on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform and came second.
There are concerns that Atiku may not support any candidate if he loses the primary, but his team insists he will remain loyal and back whoever emerges to challenge the APC.
Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation Magazine and an Atiku ally, said the former vice president is well-placed to challenge Tinubu.
“The most experienced politician and administrator in Nigeria today is Atiku. You can’t compete with Tinubu on money or structures; the only way to compete is technically,” Momodu said.
He added, “You must go to the North where there is a crisis, reach those who need incentives, and give them incentives.”
Momodu dismissed zoning arguments and the eight-year rotation between North and South, calling them “misleading and not grounded in constitutional reality,” stressing, “The constitution of Nigeria does not prevent anyone from contesting.”
Atiku has confirmed he intends to contest and said the ADC must hold a primary to pick its candidate. He has denied speculation that he might step aside for the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket.
Supporters of Obi-Kwankwaso say the coalition is strong, combining Peter Obi’s mass-following movements – the Obedient Movement and Village Boys Movement – with Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya base, despite fears of election rigging.
Lawyer and political analyst Deji Adeyanju, however, remains skeptical. He blamed the opposition’s failure to unite in 2023 for Tinubu’s win and said, “I have no issue with the opposition coming together to defeat the failed Tinubu government, but giving Obi the ADC ticket – let Tinubu continue. In 2027, any other opposition candidate is acceptable, but if Obi gets the ticket, it’s personal.”
In contrast, Yunusa Tanko, Director-General of the Obidient Movement, said, “Only a true patriot can manage our diversity to greatness. Nigerians must arise and shine; a New Nigeria is possible.”
As the 2027 race heats up, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has injected new energy into the opposition. But the uncertainty around Atiku’s role and the APC’s established structures will determine how far the ticket can go.
Although Obi has ruled out running as Atiku’s vice president, some ADC leaders believe it could strengthen the ticket against the APC.
With presidential primaries weeks away, the ADC faces a critical test: conducting a credible primary while managing tensions between long-time members and new entrants claiming ownership of the party.
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