A six-year investigation by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) says 79,323 people were killed in terrorism-related violence across Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, and 34,773 civilians were abducted in the same period.
The findings are in a report titled, “Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence,” announced in a statement signed by ORFA Senior Research Analyst, Frans Vierhout, in Jos yesterday.
ORFA says that equals an average of seven attacks and 36 deaths per day. Of the total, 42,033 were civilians and 37,290 were security personnel and members of armed groups. Researchers spent years analysing and cross-checking attack patterns, the group said, challenging common ideas about who drives Nigeria’s insecurity.
Boko Haram and ISWAP — often seen as the main culprits — accounted for 12% of civilian deaths (Boko Haram 8%, ISWAP 4%). ORFA says groups it labels “Fulani Terror Groups” were behind 44% of civilian killings — 18,577 deaths — versus 4,941 for Boko Haram and ISWAP combined. The group stressed it separates armed groups from the Fulani ethnic population, noting most Fulani are not involved in violence.
Commenting on the findings, Vierhout said ORFA’s analysis considered attack patterns, targets, operational locations and seasonal trends.
“The data makes this difficult to ignore. We examined how killings occur, who is targeted, where attacks take place and seasonal fluctuations. The evidence points strongly in one direction,” he said.
On abductions, ORFA records 34,773 civilian kidnappings: 43% blamed on “Fulani Terror Groups,” 49% on “Unidentified Terror Groups.” The report notes 28,551 Christians and 13,224 Muslims were killed, and Christian victims were killed at a higher rate relative to population distribution.
Christian abductions stand at 15,932
In a related paper, Senior Research Analyst Steven Kefas cites survivor testimony saying Christian captives faced higher ransom demands, longer negotiations, harsher treatment and greater risk of execution, with Christian women at higher risk of sexual violence. ORFA says Christian abductions were 15,932 versus 15,272 among Muslims, and that 75% of civilian deaths happened during attacks on farming communities involving abductions, sexual violence and property destruction.
The study used up to 60 data points per incident from five streams: field research, local partners, academic sources, media and NGO reports, and verified social media content. ORFA called for wider recognition of the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria, saying efforts to fix insecurity will be incomplete without it.
