Lionel Messi has jumped to the top of the 2026 Ballon d’Or race after Argentina beat England 2-1 to reach the World Cup final. Prediction markets now give the 39-year-old the best chance of winning the award this year.
Polymarket Sports puts Messi on a 31.7% probability of claiming a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or — the highest among the contenders — after his starring semi-final showing. Argentina came from behind to beat the Three Lions, and Messi was key to both goals: he set up Enzo Fernandez for the equaliser and then provided the assist for Lautaro Martinez’s winner.
The result not only sent La Albiceleste into a second straight final but also underlined Messi’s relevance at 39, reminding everyone he can still decide the biggest matches. Messi last won the Ballon d’Or in 2023, a prize earned after Argentina’s 2022 World Cup triumph in Qatar — the win that ended a 36-year wait for the nation and bolstered claims he’s the greatest ever.
Should Argentina lift the 2026 World Cup on home soil in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, a ninth Ballon d’Or would likely be seen as a formality. Ballon d’Or released a statement on Messi earlier, explaining if winning the World Cup only guarantees winning the Golden Ball. Lionel Messi’s hat-trick in Argentina’s World Cup opener against Algeria necessitated the statement as fans believed that he could win again.
